Cold War Politics at the North Pole

If you read this blog regularly, you probably saw my coverage of the North Pole exploration season this past spring. While there were no full-distance expeditions to the North Pole from either the Canadian or Russian side of the ice as there has been in years past, there was still plenty of drama to be had. That's because Norway and Russian got into a bit of a showdown over who gets access to the Arctic. The pissing match between those two countries turned into a bit of a political and logistical nightmare that resulted in some polar explorers, adventurers, and researchers being left in the lurch while attempting to travel to and from the Arctic this spring. And the fallout from this exchange could have long-lasting repercussions for the future.

I reported several times on the fact that flights to the Barneo Ice Camp – the temporary base built at 89ºN each year – were delayed coming out of Longyearbyen, in Svalbard, Norway because of security issues. Those flights are for massive Russian supply planes, which are used to shuttle gear and personnel too and from the Arctic. The aircraft typically fly from Russia to Norway, where they pick up passengers and supplies before proceeding on to Barneo. But this year, this procedure caused a stir when the transport planes carried a team of Chechen soldier who were on their way to the Arctic to conduct training exercises. Norwegian officials say that the Russians didn't inform them that these commandos would passing through their country, and in retaliation they revoked all of the flight permits, and changed the procedure for how the Russian jets come and go.

All of this was further compounded by the fact that the Barneo station had one of its most challenging years ever. Each year, a team of Russian engineers parachutes out onto the ice to build a temporary base that includes a 4000-foot (1220 meter) runway. That camp is then used to facilitate travel throughout the Arctic for a month or so. But this year, the landing strip had all kinds of issues, having to be rebuilt on multiple occasions and even forcing the relocation of the base at one point.

As you can imagine, all of this led to a tumultuous season at the North Pole this year, and will dramatically impact operations moving forward. Just exactly what happened, and how it will change travel in the Arctic in the future, is detailed in this article from Outside magazine. The story goes to great lengths to lay out the facts of what happened and the dispute that it has created between the Russians and the Norwegians. If you followed the events as they unfolded this past spring, or know the logistics of Arctic travel, you'll find it to be a good read.

It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out in the future. At the end of the Arctic season, the team that operates Barneo said that they would shift their logistical base back to Russia and travel through Franz Josef Land starting next year. That will work of course, but it means more hassle for the people coming and going from Barneo. Whether or not that has a real impact on travel at the top of the world remains to be seen.

Climber Sets New Speed Record for Climbing Seven Summits

Climbing the Seven Summits remains quite a milestone in the world of outdoor adventure, but those hoping to do so in record time now have an impressive new mark to try to beat. American climber and endurance athlete Colin O'Brady reached the summit of Denali in Alaska this past weekend, wrapping up his quest to climb the highest peaks on each of the seven continents, a feat he accomplished in just 132 days.

O'Brady's Seven Summits bid started this past January, when he traveled to Antarctica to climb Mt. Vinson. He followed that up with Aconcagua in South America, Kilimanjaro in Africa, Carstensz Pyramid in Oceania, Elbrus in Europe, Everest in Asia, and Denali in North America. Those last two mountains were summited just eight days apart. The previous record for climbing the Seven Summits was 134 days, set by Vern Tejas back in 2010.

The Seven Summits speed record isn't the only one that O'Brady is claiming. Between climbing all of those mountains, he also managed to ski to both the South and North Pole, reaching the former on January 10 and the latter on April 19. That has given him claims of completing the "Explorers Grand Slam" as well. But, both of those excursions were last degree ski expeditions and did not cover the full distances to either of the Poles. Colin is claiming a record of 139 days to finish his entire project, which beats the previous record of 192 days.

O'Brady wasn't just going after speed records in his adventurous start to 2016. He also was working to raise $1 million for the Alliance for a Healthier Generation as well. That organization is working to combat child obesity by inspiring kids to be more active and eat healthier too. Colin didn't quite hit that goal, raising about $15,772 instead, but for this important cause, every dollar counts.

Congrats to Colin on claiming the speed record for the Seven Summits. It seems like it will take a tremendous effort to by another climber to beat this mark.

Russian Teens Skied to the North Pole in Just 5 Days

The 2016 Arctic Season may be over, but there are still a few interesting stories to share. For instance, ExWeb has posted an article about a team of Russian teens who skied to the North Pole (last degree) in just 5 days following a host of delays that cut into their planned time out on the ice.

The group of seven teens had planned to make a last-degree ski expedition to the North Pole via the Barneo Ice Camp. Their original schedule gave them 7-10 days to complete the journey, which covered roughly 125 km (77.6 miles) over the frozen Arctic Ocean. That means they were able to sustain a pace of about 25 km (15.5 miles) per day, which is an excellent pace considering the conditions they encountered on the ice.

The challenges of the Barneo Ice Camp have been well documented on this blog, and elsewhere, this year. The ice flows that the temporary base is built on were being buffeted by ocean currents throughout the season, causing the blue ice runway there to crack multiple times. That caused a lot of delays, causing the Russian teens, and a number of other teams, to back up while they waited for their chance to fly out to the camp. Eventually the runway was completed, and the flights started arriving, but it took awhile to catch up on the backlog of people who were waiting to arrive in the Arctic. This cut into the time that the skiers had to reach the Pole.

According to ExWeb, when the team was retrieved from their finish line at 90ºN, they did not look tired or exhausted. In fact, they still had a lot of energy and were so excited to have reached the North Pole. It was quite a journey for these young adventurers, many of whom have wanted to ski through the Arctic for the better part of their lives.

I know that this is "only" a last degree ski expedition, but it is still an impressive feat to see these teenagers make that journey in such a quick pace. Five days to cover a degree of latitude is quite a short time frame, and I know a few polar explorers who would be hard pressed to maintain that same pace themselves. Also, how cool is it to be a teenager and get to go to the North Pole. I clearly went to the wrong high school.

The Last Great March Will Take Explorers Across Simpson Desert and to the North Pole

As the 2016 Arctic exploration season starts to wind down, we now get word of yet another attempt to ski the full distance to the North Pole. Adventurers Sebastian Copeland and Mark George are planning on making that journey in 2017 as part of what they call The Last Great March, a project that also includes a self-supported journey across Australia's Simpson Desert as well.

The two men – who has extensive exploration and adventure credits on their resume – first plan to set out from Ellesmere Island in Canada next February in an attempt to ski 775 km (481 miles) to the Geographic North Pole at 90ºN. They'll travel on skis over the ice, dragging their sleds filled with gear and equipment behind them as they go, with the hope of finishing the journey in under 49 days. Along the way, they'll face unpredictable weather, ice rubble fields, large open leads of water, and possibly even polar bears. If they can actually pull it off, they'll be the first team to complete the full journey to the North Pole since 2014, and quite possibly the last to do so.

But the expedition to the North Pole is only one phase of the Last Great March project. Sebastian and Mark are also planning of trekking for 520 km (323 miles) across the Simpson Desert, the driest place on the Australian continent. To do so, they'll need to pull specially built carts carrying 400 pounds (181 kg) of gear and equipment, much of which will consist of the water they'll need to survive in this inhospitable place. While out in the desert they'll face intense heat, dehydration, massive sand dunes, and a variety of poisonous snakes.

The goal of The Last Great March is to not only push the boundaries of human endurance in remote and difficult settings but also to record the impact of climate change on these places. It will be interesting to see how these expeditions play out, particularly in the Arctic. We had one team announce a full-distance expedition to the North Pole this year, and that didn't end so well. Will this team have more success next year? We'll have to wait to see.

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens - Update 5

The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the Arctic as at August 15, 2015.

Below a time lapse video, covering the period from May 30 to August 15, 2015, created by Cameron Forge with daily images from NPEO Webcam 1 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory, National Science Foundation. For a drift map of the buoys, also see this page.

Below is an August 14, 2015, satellite image from Arctic.io showing that there is very little sea ice to the north east of Greenland and what is there looks to be very thin as well.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent, with the blue dot indicating the extent for August 14, 2015.

More will follow soon.

Sea surface temperatures in the Arctic as at August 15, 2015.http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/08/arctic-sea-ice-collapse-threatens-update-5.html
Posted by Sam Carana on Sunday, August 16, 2015

Year 2014 Pictures Dire Situation

The year 2014 is shaping up to be the warmest year on record and the heat is felt most strongly in the polar regions and in the oceans. 

Surface Temperatures

Above images show that the Arctic is experiencing accelerating warming. This is causing jet stream changes, resulting in more extreme weather events. Besides creating havoc around the globe, such extreme weather events can further speed up warming of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent release of methane from its seafloor, as described in more detail in a recent post. 

Ocean Heat

The primary driver of methane release from the Arctic Ocean seafloor is ocean heat. NOAA analysis shows that the global ocean surface temperature for the year-to-date (January through to November 2014) was 1.03°F (0.57°C) above average, the warmest such period on record. The anomaly is even more pronounced in the Norther Hemisphere, as illustrated by the image below.

Ocean temperatures can show much higher anomalies locally, as illustrated by the image below. The high sea surface temperatures near Svalbard give an indication of how warm the ocean current is below the surface.

2014 SST anomaly near Svalbard (green circle) Aug 26: 7.3°C, Sep 26: 6.7°C, Oct 26: 5.9°C, Nov 26: 4.2°C, Dec 26: 3.7°C

The danger is that ocean temperatures will continue to rise, especially in the North Atlantic, and that the Gulf Stream will keep carrying ever warmer water from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, where it will destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments under the seafloor.

Methane

Methane levels are already exceptionally high over the Arctic, as illustrated by the recent NOAA image below. Since end October 2014, huge quantities of methane have erupted from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. As said, the primary driver of methane release from the Arctic Ocean seafloor is ocean heat. Water temperatures off the coast of North America get very high in July and it takes a few months for ocean currents to carry this heat to the Arctic Ocean. Further reasons why methane levels over the Arctic suddenly get very high from the end of October are discussed in this post.

The Gulf Stream will keep carrying water into the Arctic Ocean that is warmer than the water already there. These methane eruptions will therefore continue into the new year, threatening to further accelerate warming in the Arctic and cause even more extreme weather events, wildfires and further emissions in the year 2015, in a spiral of runaway warming. 

The combination image below shows the strength at which methane is erupting from the Arctic Ocean seafloor. On December 25, 2014, methane lights up the northern sky like a Christmas tree. The image shows levels at 6 km (19,820 ft) altitude, as recorded by, from top to bottom, MetOp-1 am (up to 2277 ppb), MetOp-1 pm (up to 2295 ppb) and MetOp-2 am (up to 2336 ppb).

MetOp-2 records for December 25, 2014, pm, are incorporated in the animation below, showing methane concentrations reaching levels of up to 2284 ppb at an altitude of 6 km (19,820 ft) and reaching even higher levels of up to 2329 ppb at an altitude of 9.3 km (30,570 ft).

The troposphere is deepest at tropical latitudes, where it reaches altitudes of up to 20 km (12 mi), and rather shallow at the polar regions, where it only reaches altitudes of some 7 km (4.3 mi) in winter. For high concentrations of methane to show up over the Arctic Ocean at such a high altitude is a further indication of the strength of these methane eruptions.

Furthermore, the methane that shows up in the atmosphere is only a fraction of the methane that is erupting from the seafloor, as part of the methane will be broken down by microbes as it rises up through the water and gets stuck under the sea ice.

Arctic Sea Ice 

Sea ice only 1m thin at North Pole.
Click on image to enlarge.

The above Naval Research Laboratory animation shows that, while sea ice is now covering the entire Arctic ocean, it is in many places only about one meter thin or less. The December 20, 2014, image on the right shows 1m thin sea ice at the North Pole.

Meanwhile, huge chuncks of thick sea ice are moving along the edges of Greenland and Ellesmere Island into the Atlantic ocean.

An exponential trendline based on sea ice volume observations shows that sea ice looks set to disappear in 2019, while disappearance in 2015 is within the margins of a 5% confidence interval, reflecting natural variability.

In other words, extreme weather events could cause Arctic sea ice to collapse as early as 2015, with the resulting albedo changes further contributing to the acceleration of warming in the Arctic and causing further methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

Demise of the sea ice and snow cover in the Arctic results in further acceleration of warming, not only due to less sunlight getting reflected back into space, but also due to loss of the buffer that currently absorbs huge amounts of heat as it melts in summer. With the demise of this latent heat buffer, more sunlight will instead go into heating up the water of the Arctic Ocean. For more on the latter, see the page on latent heat. 

Feedbacks

Above image illustrates some of the self-reinforcing feedback loops that have been highlighted in this post. Further feedbacks are pictured in the image below.

from the Feedbacks page

Situation Calls For Comprehensive And Effective Action

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.

Post by Sam Carana.